Week 3 Daily Player Values

So I have decided not to split up FanDuel & DraftKings in my analysis from here on out.  It’s too confusing.  I am just going to assess both and then give you the players I think are the best values overall.  If you would rather I continue to split them up, let me know and I’ll do that again next week.  Below I will give you my top few value buys at each position for week 1.  I will omit a couple I like particularly because I am starting those guys and don’t want you having the same lineup as me.  However, if you want my exact weekly lineup I am going to submit for FanDuel and/or DraftKings, the cost for an annual subscription to those lineups is $59.  You would just PayPal the $59 to me, and you would receive a weekly e-mail with my exact picks.  Then, truly, I hope we just don’t play each other that week as it would be a tie.  Just send an e-mail to weeklylineupsubscription@gmail.com to sign up, and I’ll then send you a PayPal invoice for payment.

Great Value Picks for Week 3


Matthew Stafford – He is expensive, but he has a great matchup with a weak GB defense.  He’s hard to trust, but could put up monster numbers
Cam Newton – At home in a primetime game, I think Newton will play very well and start to run a bit more.  Good value.
Alex Smith – Very cheap right now, and could finally throw for some touchdowns against Miami.
Kirk Cousins – Good value against Philly’s defense.  He is risky because he has only played a couple times, but he could have a very good game and be in catch up mode…


LeSean McCoy – He is being undervalued because Sproles had a couple nice plays.  I can see Sproles continuing to produce, but so will Shady.  Against Washington I am looking for a huge game.
Knile Davis – If Charles is confirmed out, he is a good play against Miami at a moderate price
Eddie Lacy – Especially cheap on DraftKings, he is a must start there.  I think he breaks out this week.
Khiry Robinson – With Ingram out, a sneaky start.
Donald Brown – With Mathews out, another sneaky start.  Great value.


Randall Cobb – Against Detroit’s weak secondary he should get plenty of work.
Andre Johnson – Going against the Giants, and they will lean less heavily on Arian this week since he tweaked a hammy.
Julian Edelman – Continues to rack up the targets this week
Keenan Allen – Break out week is coming this week or soon–great value this week
Brandin Cooks – Down week last week for the Saints, but they bounce back this week and Cooks is going to be a stud
Andrew Hawkins – PPR machine will continue to be targeted often, and he will eventually break one with his speed.


Rob Gronkowski – Value is down after slow week 2, but the Pats did not throw it much.  He’s a TD machine.
Zach Ertz – Still being undervalued–great talent on a great offense
Dennis Pitta – Terrible week 2, but great player and will be target often
Travis Kelce – Value continues to grow as I said it would–keep starting him until his price is in the top 7, because he’s that kind of talent.

Week 2 Daily Lineup Recap

I had another fantastic week in week 2 and doubled my investment again.  Here were my lineups:


Aaron Rodgers
Giovanni Bernard
Arian Foster
DeMaryius Thomas
Justin Hunter
TY Hilton
Travis Kelce


Aaron Rodgers
Giovanni Bernard
Terrance West
Randall Cobb
TY Hilton
DeMaryius Thomas
Travis Kelce
Arian Foster

I will give you my values for week 3 shortly.  Just to remind you, folks are taking advantage of my offer and making big bucks: If you want my exact weekly lineup I am going to submit for FanDuel and/or DraftKings, the cost for an annual subscription to those lineups is $59.  You would just PayPal the $59 to me, and you would receive a weekly e-mail with my exact picks.  Then, truly, I hope we just don’t play each other that week as it would be a tie.  Just send an e-mail to weeklylineupsubscription@gmail.com to sign up, and I’ll then send you a PayPal invoice for payment.

Trading Thoughts & Targets

So week 2 is when people begin to feel they might need to make a move in their league.  They might not have a championship team, and trades are the quickest way to turn a roster around.  I would say I have won way more leagues through a well-timed trade or two than through masterful waiver wire management, though of course that is important as well.  I try to always live by three adages when considering trades:

1. Always buy low and sell high

2. Always trade for more talent and better situation (regardless of draft positions)

3. Be concerned primarily with how the trade affects your starting lineup, not your bench.

So this week I have been targeting Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, and Keenan Allen.  All three guys have superior talent and they will have huge games this year.  All three have a value near the basement right now either due to brutal matchups to start the year (Allen & Lacy) or due to injury (Charles).  Buy them–it will pay off.  Just make sure if you get Lacy or Charles, you also get Starks & Davis if possible.

I am willing to give up a couple of potential studs who will likely ride my bench all year for a guy who immediately upgrades my starting lineup–that is the quickest way to turn your roster from good to great.  Let me know if you have specific questions!

Week 2 FanDuel/DraftKings Values (and my week 1 recap)

Let me begin with a recap of how I did in week 1 in the weekly leagues, just to add a few credentials.  I played in 94 matches between DraftKings & FanDuel, of varying dollar amounts.  I played a vast majority of head to head matchups and 50/50 matchups (where the top half in scoring double their money essentially).  My record in FanDuel was 24-5 (a bit lower than I wanted because I had Ellington in a couple of the Thursday starting matchups and found out after it started that he had reinjured his toe in practice that day).  But still good overall.  My record in DraftKings was 63-2, including a handful of tournaments where I finished highly and quadrupled my entry or more.  It was a good week.  I more than doubled my entry money, and that’s always the goal for me.

Personally I find FanDuel a bit harder to win in the head-to-heads because of the one fewer skill position.  I feel like that hampers creativity a bit and keeps me from showing off all the way what I know in terms of sleepers.  In week 1 I went “balls to the wall” and chose only one lineup in each format (the FanDuel lineup I will share with you is the lineup after I removed Ellington for the Sunday starting matchups).  Here are the lineups I went with (and many of these players are the ones I recommended to you in my last entry):

FanDuel Week 1 lineup

Matt Ryan
Montee Ball
LeSean McCoy
Michael Floyd
Torrey Smith
Julio Jones
Travis Kelce

DraftKings Week 1 lineup

Matt Ryan
Montee Ball
Arian Foster
Michael Floyd
Julio Jones
Markus Wheaton
Travis Kelce
Shane Vereen

You can sort of see that my strategy in this week was to go with consistent guys in the middle to upper tiers at all positions except tight end and hope for the best from Kelce.  (I don’t count kicker or defense because I just don’t care about those positions–they are too volatile to care).  Kelce didn’t do much, but he chipped in a few points, and the other guys I went with (even the sleeper Wheaton) did very well.  I was disappointed with Torrey Smith and he costs me a couple matchups in FanDuel, but overall it was a good week.

On to week 2.  My goal is to help you do as well as I did.  Let me remind you: Below I will give you my top few value buys at each position for week 1.  I will omit a couple I like particularly because I am starting those guys and don’t want you having the same lineup as me.  However, if you want my exact weekly lineup I am going to submit for FanDuel and/or DraftKings, the cost for an annual subscription to those lineups is $59.  You would just PayPal the $59 to me, and you would receive a weekly e-mail with my exact picks.  Then, truly, I hope we just don’t play each other that week as it would be a tie.  Just send an e-mail to weeklylineupsubscription@gmail.com to sign up, and I’ll then send you a PayPal invoice for payment.

Here are the top value buys at each important position for FanDuel and DraftKings for week 2.



Russell Wilson, $8200 – Wilson is so consistent that he is a good value here.  It’s almost a lock he’ll be between 15 and 25 every week.

Jake Locker, $7400 – Against Dallas’ defense, this is a very nice value.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, $6000 – Ditto against Oakland.  This guy has ridiculous targets even if his talent isn’t all that.  If going on the cheap at QB, he’s a great option.

Brian Hoyer, $5800 – Hesitate at the talent, but he is going to be in catchup mode all day against New Orleans, and they must respect Cleveland’s talent at RB.


Aaron Rodgers, $7900 – He is the 7th QB on the board at DraftKings!  Great value.

Russell Wilson, $7100 – See above.

Philip Rivers, $6200 – Going against Seattle, but they are at home and he has a bunch of weapons.  I think he’ll find a way to rack up points.

Chad Henne, $6000 – Hate the player, love the matchup.  I think Washington will get up on them, and I think Jacksonville will have no trouble keeping it close.

Brian Hoyer, $5000 – See above.



AP, $8800 – Fallen to 5th among running backs and against the Pats defense that was terrible last week against the run.

Arian Foster, $8300 – Against Oakland, need I say more?

Alfred Morris, $7200 – Could run wild against Jacksonville

Trent Richardson, $6400 – Sneaky sleeper play here against a middling Philly defense.  He ran hard last week–just didn’t get enough touches.

Lamar Miller, $6300 – Another nice sleeper play.  If he’s going to get 15 touches a game I don’t care about Moreno.  Value is there.

Mark Ingram, $5900 – Against Cleveland, who got gashed by LeVeon Bell last week.

Terrence West, $5300 – Absolute must start of the week.  Will get most of the carries against New Orleans, who were decent but not great against the run.  Even if he only gets 50 yards and a few catches, the value is incredible at $5300.


Jamaal Charles, $7400 – Yeah he laid an egg, but he is now the 5th best RB on DraftKings.  I’d take that value.

Marshawn Lynch, $7200 – Another nice matchup with San Diego makes this a good value.

Gio Bernard, $6300 – Priced in at this price – I think he will have a very nice day, particularly with the full PPR you get a DraftKings.

Eddie Lacy, $6000 – If Lacy plays, I am not too scared of the Jets to not consider starting him at this price.

Terrence West, $4800 – See above.

Trent Richardson & Lamar Miller, $4600 – See above.



Julian Edelman, $6400 – Brady’s favorite target, even in .5 PPR this is a nice value.

Brandin Cooks, $6300 – Don’t wait to see it again; he’s here to say.

Reggie Wayne, $6200 – Excellent value here for Andrew’s favorite WR

Torrey Smith, $5900 – Another guy who had a bad week but this is incredible value.

Andrew Hawkins, $5200 – Hoyer’s favorite, a great value here

Markus Wheaton, $5100 – Another guy here to stay.  Buy him while he’s cheap.


DeMaryius Thomas, $7000 – Had a slow week but is a potential 30 point guy every week.

Randall Cobb, $6400 – Should have a nice day and in full PPR this is a nice value.

Michael Floyd, $6000 – Seems to be their best WR, so this is a nice value as well.

Reggie Wayne, $5300 – See above.

Brandin Cooks, $5300 – See above.

Torrey Smith, $5000 – See above.

Vincent Jackson, $5000 – Wow, the team was terrible last week, but this is still a stud receiver.  They’ll get things figured out eventually, and this valuation will seem silly.

Malcolm Floyd, $3400 – Wow, this also is crazy.  Yes, he is playing Seattle, but Jordy and Cobb put up good numbers against them, and this value?



Dennis Pitta, $6100 – $2k less than Julius, this is a nice value.

Kyle Rudolph, $5500 – Quiet week 1, but the big weeks are coming

Delanie Walker, $5000 – They will have to throw a lot to keep up with Dallas, and Walker looks good.

Dwayne Allen, $4800 – Ditto for the Colts and the Eagles.  Could be lots of throwing in this one.

Travis Kelce, $4600 – I’m telling you, the breakout is coming…


Kyle Rudolph, $3900 – Sick value ($3200 less than Julius!)

Delanie Walker, $3700 – See above.

Travis Kelce, $3000 – See above.

I hope that helps, and I hope you dominate your matchups this week and bring home the bacon.  Comment away with questions…

Fanduel / DraftKings Week 1 Values

So I can’t describe how pumped I am for the season to begin.  I am thinking about fantasy football entirely too much.  To keep myself from joining any more leagues to tide myself over, I have shifted my attention to the first lineup set for the weekly leagues.  I play at FanDuel & DraftKings, which I believe are the two most heavily played daily/weekly sites.  I am sure many of you reading this also play there.  So hopefully when I give you these recommendations (as I plan to each week), we don’t end up playing each other.

I had a lot of success on these sites last year, and the main reason was because I was good at identifying value.  These leagues are all about finding value.  The salaries for each player that you have to pay (and then remain within your salary cap) are somewhat arbitrarily chosen by the FanDuel & DraftKings staff.  I am sure the values are based on a variety of factors, but just like trading in standard leagues is all about targeting players you like when their value is down, finding value in these weekly leagues is all about identifying players whose value in the eyes of the public has taken a hit.  When you find a guy who you like more than the public, and who you think will outperform his salary that week, that’s the guy you want.  You still need to start some studs, and the point is of course to score the most points, not just to find value.  But without finding value, you typically won’t score the most points.

Below I will give you my top few value buys at each position for week 1.  I may omit a couple I like particularly because I am starting those guys and don’t want you having the same lineup as me.  However, if you want my exact weekly lineup I am going to submit for FanDuel and/or DraftKings, the cost for an annual subscription to those lineups is $59.  You would just PayPal the $59 to me, and you would receive a weekly e-mail with my exact picks.  Then, truly, I hope we just don’t play each other that week as it would be a tie.  Just send an e-mail to weeklylineupsubscription@gmail.com to sign up, and I’ll then send you a PayPal invoice for payment.

Anyway, here are the best values at each position, on each platform:



Ben Roethlisberger, $7800 – He is playing a decent defense in the secondary, but I feel that Cleveland is reeling as an organization right now and Pittsburgh is at home to start a season in which they want to reestablish their divisional dominance.  I think they roll and Ben puts up some big numbers relative to his salary.

Alex Smith, $6900 – Yes, the Chiefs have looked terrible, but they have Jamaal back and I think this one might turn into a shootout, since both secondaries have looked very average.  He might not throw it further than 15 yards, but someone might break one.

Brian Hoyer, $5600 – If you are wanting to save money at QB, Hoyer could provide good value.  The Browns will likely be in catch up mode.


Colin Kaepernick, $8000 – I think against Dallas this is going to be a good value.

Ben Roethlisberger, $7600 – See above

Philip Rivers, $7400 – Rivers is facing a good defense but this is still a good value – he has plenty of options to throw to.

Jake Locker, $6100 – I think he puts up some decent numbers against this secondary, and he is agile enough to avoid KC’s rush.

Chad Henne, $5200 – As long as they keep him starting, he should put up some good numbers against Philly’s secondary.



Montee Ball, $8000 – It’s a lot of money but Ball could put up huge numbers in this one, with the Colts’ below average defense keying on Peyton.

Andre Ellington, $6800 – San Diego can be tough against the run, but I think the Cardinals will find ways to get him the ball, even if it’s in catch up mode through the air.  Good value.

Shane Vereen, $6600 – Excellent value here. FanDuel is only 0.5 PPR, but Vereen should also get the most carries of any back, and they are playing the Dolphins.

Toby Gerhart, $6100 – Against Philly’s mediocre defense he should put up 15 points at least, at a very modest cap hit.

Dri Archer, $4500 – If you just need to squeeze in a back under the cap, Archer should get 3-4 catches and could take one to the house.  The Steelers are looking for ways to get him involved.


Montee Ball – $7000 – Here he is 2K less than Charles – great value!

Gio Bernard – $6600 – His value has taken a hit due to Hill’s emergence this preseason, but in a divisional grudge match he will get lots of work and I think he’ll do quite well.

Shane Vereen, $6100 – Even cheaper here, and DraftKings is a full PPR.  Great value.

Andre Ellington, $6000 – INCREDIBLE value!  Sign him up.

Toby Gerhart, $5600 – see above

Ben Tate, $5200 – This is an incredible value for a starting running back – again, he was also hurt by preseason negativity, but he is the starter, and should put up decent numbers at a great price.

Rashad Jennings, $5000 – Awesome value against Detroit’s mediocre D.



Michael Crabtree, $6500 – Against Dallas’ defense, come on.  If the 49ers come out firing like they did last year he could have 200 yards.

Eric Decker, $6400 – I won’t recommend him often, but against the Raiders defense he could have a huge day.

Julian Edelman, $6300 – In his last game against Miami, he had 13 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown.  He is a # 1 on a very good offense.

Brandin Cooks, $5700 – This could end up being a bad call, but I think he puts up good numbers in this shootout game and his salary is never this low again.

Rueben Randle, $5500 – The Giants stink, but that could mean Randle gets ample opportunity when they are in comeback mode.  He is their best red zone threat.  Great value here.


Victor Cruz, $6300 – Detroit’s secondary stinks.

Cordarrelle Patterson, $5800 – Should take one to the house or come close – great value.

TY Hilton, $5500 – Even better value.  They might double him and shut him down, but this one will be a shootout and he should get his opportunities.

Rueben Randle, $5000 – See above

Emmanuel Sanders, $4800 – Way cheaper than on FanDuel, this is a great value for a guy on such an explosive offense against such a bad defense.  If Welker can’t go, he is definitely a must start.

Brandin Cooks, $4500 – See above.

Markus Wheaton, $3300 – Incredible value for a guy who is starting with a great QB.  Haden will be tying up Antonio all day, so I like Wheaton to do some damage.  A must start.



Dennis Pitta, $6200 – At $2k less than Graham, I think Pitta provides some value here.  He is going to put up 5 catches and could catch a TD in my opinion, even with a defensive slugfest.  He is Flacco’s favorite read.

Kyle Rudolph, $5700 – He is risky, but his upside brings this value up.

Delanie Walker, $4800 – Great value for a guy who will also catch 5 balls a game and could easily score against a suspect secondary who is always bad against the TE.

Zach Ertz, $4500 – Are you kidding me?  This is ridiculous value for one of the top young tight ends – his value will rise steadily over the year, I assure you.

Travis Kelce, $4500 – A very risky pick, but I could see Kelce being a main target for Smith on a day when Bowe is out with a suspension.  Whether or not he targets him often, he should!  Kelce may be the most talented pass catcher on the team.


Dennis Pitta, $4400 – See above

Kyle Rudolph, $4300 – See above

Delanie Walker, $3300 – See above

Travis Kelce, $3200 – See above

I don’t help with Kickers and Defenses.  Just don’t spend much money on those, okay?  :)


Dynasty Must Haves: Dri Archer, John Brown, & Donte Moncrief

Dri Archer is a mini-Jamaal Charles.  He’s smaller, but he has a lot of the same skills. The Steelers will find ways to get him the ball. If you are in a dynasty league, find a way to land him.  That is all I have to say about that.

John Brown is a mini-TY Hilton.  He is lightning fast, a great route runner, and has great hands.  By next season he will be putting up some serious stats in Arizona.  Find a way to get him on your team and be patient.

Donte Moncrief has off the charts measureables, but more important than that he is coming into a great offense with the best QB over the next 10 years.  He will grow with Luck and will become the next Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne.  TY Hilton will be a huge part of the offense as well, but I think Moncrief will emerge as their true # 1.


That’s it; get those three guys.  In most dynasty rookie drafts they can be had in the 3rd round, and I think they have the most long-term upside…

Good Offense

Fantasy football is a game about offensive football.  Yes, you must start a defense on your team, but as I said in my Draft Tips post, I stream my defense week to week and NEVER waste a valuable draft pick on a defense.  Overall, this game is about offense.  So one of the overlooked but very important aspects of succeeding in building your team is picking guys who will be on effective offenses.  Having an effective offense doesn’t mean the team will be good, or that they’ll have a good record.  They may finish last in their division but still have an effective offense that produces several quality fantasy players.

Case in point: last year the Giants were just a bad offense (and a bad team to boot).  You did not want to own any fantasy players on that team.  They have Eli Manning, a good QB, Victor Cruz, a good WR, and a couple other marginal talents.  A lot of people were high on tight end Brandon Myers after he went to New York from the Raiders the previous year.  When a team is that bad, and the offensive line that inept, you just avoid those players, regardless of how talented they might be in a vacuum.  From the same division, the Cowboys are the opposite example.  They only won one more game and finished a poor 8-8, but they were a good offense.  They had several startable players and you knew on a weekly basis the offense was going to score points.  Ditto with the Detroit Lions.  Bad team overall, but a good offense.

So I will go division by division, and give offensive effectiveness grades to each team in the league.  If a team is an A or B, it means I would draft players from that team with a high level of confidence, without worries that you are going to end up with a Houston Texans situation, where you want nothing to do with starting one of their players (regardless of their individual talent).  If they get a grade of C, they are a marginal offense and I would be cautious before drafting a player on that offense.  If you believe in the offense or think the skill of the player will transcend what is lacking on the offense, go for it.  But if you don’t believe in the offensive scheme, the quarterback, the O-line, or whatever, avoid players on that team.  Finally, if a team gets a great of D or F, I strongly recommend you don’t draft a player on that team, even if a super-talented player is being dragged down by the team’s ineptitude.  I will give my grade with only a couple quick thoughts on those where I think there is a wide range of opinion  – if you have questions or disagree, hit me up in the comments.  Without further ado, here are my grades:

NFC North

Green Bay Packers – A

Detroit Lions – B

Chicago Bears – A

Minnesota Vikings – C   Many would grade them lower, especially with question mark at QB.  But with AP and Turner’s offensive scheme, I think they’ll be middle of the pack.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks – B

San Francisco 49ers – B

St. Louis Rams – C  I was tempted to give them a D because I just don’t trust Bradford, but I do like Stacy and I think they have a decent offensive line.  If Britt pans out, they could be a decent offense.

Arizona Cardinals – B

NFC South

Carolina Panthers – D  Just stay away from guys on this team; it’s just not a talented offensive group.

New Orleans Saints – A

Atlanta Falcons – C  I was tempted again to give them a D.  I just don’t think they are very good, and I think they are headed for a total rebuild.  They might be just good enough to make their WRs playable, but it’s close.

Tampa Bay Bucs – C  This also is a shot in the dark a bit.  We just don’t know what the new offense is going to look like with so many new parts, and the offensive line has looked bad so far.  This is a grade with an expectation that the o-line will improve by week 1; if it seems they are declining, avoid all Bucs.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys – B

Washington Redskins – D  I have heard folks say the Redskins are going to be better this year, and Gruden is going to turn them around.  I don’t buy it.  RGIII is overrated by a long way, and I think that hamstrings this offense.  I am steering clear of all Redskins on my teams.

Philadelphia Eagles – A

New York Giants – C  I see a bit of a bounce back season for the Giants with McAdoo’s new scheme and a rebuilt offensive line.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens – D  Avoid Ravens this year.  They may make the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean their offensive players will be helpful to you.  Torrey Smith, due to the large number of targets he’ll get, and possibly Dennis Pitta, are the only players who may prove me wrong here.  But due to the lack of a running game, defenses will prepare a lot for those guys.  I would pass.

Pittsburgh Steelers – C

Cleveland Browns – B  Whether it’s Manziel or Hoyer, I like the Browns to shock a lot of people this year due to their excellent O-line. 

Cincinnati Bengals – B

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs – B  As I said in previous posts, load up on Chiefs this year.  Except for Charles they are coming cheap, and they are going to be good on offense.

Denver Broncos – A

Oakland Raiders – F  Don’t buy the Raiders hype about improving.  They have no legit WRs, no TE you want, and they have a couple of aging, ineffective RBs.  That doesn’t even mention the mediocre O-line and lack of a good QB!

San Diego Chargers – B

AFC South 

Houston Texans – D  If the Texans can figure out how to protect Fitzpatrick during the rest of the preseason, thus adding a passing game and freeing up room for Foster, I’d move this up to a C or even a B.  But I’m going to have to see something soon.

Indianapolis Colts – B

Tennessee Titans – D  I know it’s tempting to grab Sankey the rookie back or Justin Hunter for his upside, but I would avoid it.  Their offense just stinks.

Jacksonville Jaguars – C/D  One of the hardest to rank.  I just don’t know what’s going to happen at QB, or how well the O-line will play.  It is a huge question mark.  But I have a feeling this offense is going to be better than people think.  Cecil Shorts is getting no love, but maybe he should be.  Gerhart could be very good as well if the other issues work out.

AFC East

New England Patriots – B

New York Jets – F  Run away!  Don’t get close!  If you are an opposing defensive coordinator and you don’t double Eric Decker and stack the box to stop Chris Johnson, you should be fired.  This is the easiest offense to stop in the NFL in my opinion, possibly with the exception of the Raiders.

Miami Dolphins – C/D  Okay, so Tannehill might take a step.  And they have the new coordinator from Chip Kelly’s school of thought.  I just can’t buy it at this point.  I wanted to give them a straight up D, but with the chance they start clicking with those new elements, I say you could consider drafting a Dolphin if you feel good about their offense.

Buffalo Bills – D  Who are you scared of on this team?  And who is throwing it?  Just don’t.